Description: Healthcare costs have been rising faster than general inflation for many years. Early models that predicted this past pattern projected healthcare expenditure growth that continued to outpace total expenditure growth leading to the fallacious position that the whole of the US economy would ultimately be consumed by healthcare. This paper presents a long term healthcare trends resource model, prepared for the Society of Actuaries by Professor Thomas Getzen, that includes capacity constraints to ensure the long-term projection is rational. The motivation for creation of the model was driven by its potential usage as a resource for the estimation of reportable liabilities for retiree healthcare benefits as specified under FAS 106 and GASB 45 accounting statements.

Description: This research report studies the social media response to three extreme tornado outbreaks: May 22, 2011 in Joplin, MO, November 17, 2013 in Washington, IL and April 9, 2015 in Rochelle, IL. It uses Twitter data with a 14‐day period for each tornado event with a focus on a 24‐hour period surrounding the event. It starts with an overview of the data followed by analysis of geolocation, insurance related user influence, social network, and sentiment.

Description: This research study was designed to answer the following questions: 1. What are the most commonly occurring risk categories? 2. What are the most commonly occurring risk subcategories? 3. What are the most commonly occurring individual risks? 4. Which individual risks tend to make front-page news? 5. Which risks generate the most extensive coverage in the form of repeat articles? The scope was defined as significant downside risk events experienced by Canadian nongovernmental organizations as reported in the first 10 pages of either Section A (Front) or Section B (Report on Business) of The Globe and Mail in a 2012 weekday (Monday-Friday) edition, as recorded in their online archives (“GlobeArchives”).

Description: Healthcare costs have been rising faster than general inflation for many years. Early models that predicted this past pattern projected healthcare expenditure growth that continued to outpace total expenditure growth leading to the fallacious position that the whole of the US economy would ultimately be consumed by healthcare. The Society of Actuaries' Pension Section and Health Section Research teams commissioned Professor Thomas E. Getzen of Temple University to construct a resource model for the projection of long term healthcare cost trends that includes capacity constraints to ensure the long-term projection is rational. The motivation for creation of the model was driven by its potential usage as a resource for the estimation of reportable liabilities for retiree healthcare benefits as specified under FAS 106 and GASB 45 accounting statements. This is a zip file containing the following: 1. A background paper on the creation of the health trend model, 2. The model, programmed in Microsoft Excel [xls format], that projects per-person expenditures and growth rates through 2099 using baseline assumptions, but also permits the flexibility for user–inputted alternative assumptions, and 3. Technical documentation providing transparency and support for the ultimate results.

Description: This research study was designed to answer the following questions: 1. What are the most commonly occurring risk categories? 2. What are the most commonly occurring risk subcategories? 3. What are the most commonly occurring individual risks? 4. Which individual risks tend to make front-page news? 5. Which risks generate the most extensive coverage in the form of repeat articles? The scope was defined as significant downside risk events experienced by Canadian nongovernmental organizations as reported in the first 10 pages of either Section A (Front) or Section B (Report on Business) of The Globe and Mail in a 2012 weekday (Monday-Friday) edition, as recorded in their online archives (“GlobeArchives”).

Description: Healthcare costs have been rising faster than general inflation for many years. Early models that predicted this past pattern projected healthcare expenditure growth that continued to outpace total expenditure growth leading to the fallacious position that the whole of the US economy would ultimately be consumed by healthcare. The Society of Actuaries' Pension Section and Health Section Research teams commissioned Professor Thomas E. Getzen of Temple University to construct a resource model for the projection of long term healthcare cost trends that includes capacity constraints to ensure the long-term projection is rational. The motivation for creation of the model was driven by its potential usage as a resource for the estimation of reportable liabilities for retiree healthcare benefits as specified under FAS 106 and GASB 45 accounting statements. This is a zip file containing the following: 1. A background paper on the creation of the health trend model, 2. The model, programmed in Microsoft Excel [xls format], that projects per-person expenditures and growth rates through 2099 using baseline assumptions, but also permits the flexibility for user–inputted alternative assumptions, and 3. Technical documentation providing transparency and support for the ultimate results.

Description: In this era of rising health care costs, numerous efforts have been made to link quality and cost through multiple approaches. This is a report of a study, conducted by MPRO under contract with the SOA, in which they evaluate whether quality pays or not in an inpatient setting by carefully selecting a few hospitals in Southeast Michigan and retrospectively calculating their return on investment [ROI] in quality improvement [QI] activities within their organization.

Description: Recognizing an opportunity to help serve its members in this age of increased financial oversight, the Health Section of the Society of Actuaries commissioned a series of guides on the use of statistical techniques specifically geared for the work of health actuaries. In this first guide in the series, the topic is an estimate well-known to health actuaries- the calculation of incurred but not reported [IBNR] health claims reserves. In particular, this guide focuses on the development of confidence intervals around IBNR estimates.

Description: Recognizing an opportunity to help serve its members in this age of increased financial oversight, the Health Section of the Society of Actuaries commissioned a series of guides on the use of statistical techniques specifically geared for the work of health actuaries. The first guide in the series titled, 'Statistical Methods for Health Actuaries - IBNR Estimates: An Introduction,' is about the calculation of incurred but not reported [IBNR] health claims reserves. In particular, the guide focuses on the development of confidence intervals around IBNR estimates. This is an Excel workbook created to demonstrate the techniques discussed in the guide.

Description: As part of its ongoing effort to provide useful information on COVID-19, the Society of Actuaries issued a brief qualitative survey to its Retirement Section members to gain insight as to how COVID-19 is impacting the retirement programs and organizations they support, and also how it is impacting their work. The survey results are intended to help members compare their thinking and future expectations of COVID-19 with their peers, as well as inform future research efforts.